Super League · Regular Season - 4
FC LuganovFC ST. Gallen
FC Lugano
FC ST. Gallen·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Lugano down the side and FC ST. Gallen across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 45%.
What we think
- FC Lugano46% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 69% against a market price of 55% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 74% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.5 goals, and 2.3 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes FC Lugano the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 67% — a 13 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Lugano a 47% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 23% draw · 28% away
Now: 47% home · 23% draw · 29% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from FC Lugano
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Lugano
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
FC ST. Gallen
Confirmed · 3-1-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC LuganoDWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v BSC Young Boys 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Basel 1893 3–1
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Servette FC 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Sion 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v FC Zurich 5–0
FC ST. GallenLWLLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v FC Sion 0–3
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Servette FC 2–0(xG 1.4–0.9)
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Grasshoppers 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Thun 3–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v FC Luzern 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Lugano have won 4 of their last 5.
- FC Lugano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Lugano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Lugano's last 5.
- FC Lugano kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC ST. Gallen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC ST. Gallen's last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Lugano
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
FC ST. Gallen
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
AIL Arena, Lugano · Referee: Luca Cibelli, Switzerland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model makes FC Lugano the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen?
- FC Lugano line up in a 4-2-3-1, FC ST. Gallen in a 3-1-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.