Super League · Regular Season - 8
FC LuzernvFC Basel 1893
FC Luzern
FC Basel 1893·
2 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Luzern down the side and FC Basel 1893 across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 46%.
What we think
- FC Luzern41% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Luzern the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 67% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Luzern a 45% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 45% home · 24% draw · 31% away
Now: 45% home · 24% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Luzern
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
FC Basel 1893
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC LuzernDWDWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v BSC Young Boys 3–3
- Wed 2 Sep · H v FC Vaduz 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Servette FC 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lausanne 1–0
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC ST. Gallen 2–2
FC Basel 1893LLDWW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Lugano 1–3
- Thu 3 Sep · H v FC Sion 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v BSC Young Boys 3–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Zurich 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v FC Thun 4–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Luzern have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Luzern's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Luzern's last 5.
- FC Luzern kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Basel 1893 have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Basel 1893 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Basel 1893's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of FC Basel 1893's last 5.
- FC Basel 1893 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Luzern
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Basel 1893
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Swissporarena, Luzern · Referee: Urs Schnyder, Switzerland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
- Our model makes FC Luzern the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893?
- FC Luzern line up in a 4-4-2, FC Basel 1893 in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.