Super League · Regular Season - 9
FC LuzernvGrasshoppers
FC Luzern
Grasshoppers·
5 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). FC Luzern and Grasshoppers finish on some other score 73% of the time.
| FC / Gra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Luzern down the side and Grasshoppers across. These 97.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 53%.
What we think
- FC Luzern59% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 47% — 15 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 75% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.9 goals.
Our forecast makes FC Luzern the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 74% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Luzern a 57% chance. Our model makes it 59%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 21% draw · 22% away
Now: 57% home · 21% draw · 22% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Luzern
Confirmed · 4-2-2-2
No reported absences.
Grasshoppers
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC LuzernLDWDW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v FC Basel 1893 2–4
- Sat 5 Sep · A v BSC Young Boys 3–3
- Wed 2 Sep · H v FC Vaduz 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Servette FC 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lausanne 1–0
GrasshoppersLWDWL
- Tue 15 Sep · H v FC Sion 2–5
- Sat 12 Sep · A v FC Thun 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v FC Zurich 2–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v FC ST. Gallen 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Vaduz 2–5
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Luzern have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Luzern's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Luzern's last 5.
- FC Luzern kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Grasshoppers have won 2 of their last 5.
- Grasshoppers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Grasshoppers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Grasshoppers's last 5.
- Grasshoppers kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Luzern
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Grasshoppers
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Swissporarena, Luzern · Referee: Luca Cibelli, Switzerland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers?
- Our model makes FC Luzern the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Luzern vs Grasshoppers?
- FC Luzern line up in a 4-2-2-2, Grasshoppers in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.