Super League · Regular Season - 4
FC ThunvServette FC
FC Thun
Servette FC·
2 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (9%), then 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). FC Thun and Servette FC finish on some other score 75% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / Ser | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Thun down the side and Servette FC across. These 97.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 64% against 61%.
What we think
- FC Thun52% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: FC Thun
Best price 2.51 at SBOThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 42% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- The price has moved 8.4% away from Servette FC since it opened.
Our forecast makes FC Thun the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, which is what the market has it at too (61%).
For comparison, the market gives FC Thun a 42% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 25% draw · 41% away
Now: 42% home · 25% draw · 33% away
Moved −8pp — the market moved away from Servette FC
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Thun
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Servette FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC ThunLLDWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Grasshoppers 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Sion 2–3
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Lausanne 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC ST. Gallen 4–3
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Basel 1893 2–4
Servette FCWLLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Lausanne 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC ST. Gallen 0–2(xG 0.9–1.4)
- Thu 3 Sep · A v FC Lugano 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Luzern 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Grasshoppers 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Thun have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Thun's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Thun's last 5.
- FC Thun kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Servette FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Servette FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Servette FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Servette FC's last 5.
- Servette FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Thun
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Servette FC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Stockhorn Arena, Thun · Referee: J. von Mandach
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Thun vs Servette FC?
- Our model makes FC Thun the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Thun vs Servette FC?
- FC Thun line up in a 4-4-2, Servette FC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.