Super League · Regular Season - 8
FC ZurichvFC Vaduz
FC Zurich
FC Vaduz·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). FC Zurich and FC Vaduz finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Zurich down the side and FC Vaduz across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 47%.
What we think
- FC Zurich46% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Zurich the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 68% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives FC Zurich a 40% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 25% draw · 35% away
Now: 40% home · 25% draw · 35% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Zurich
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
FC Vaduz
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC ZurichDLWLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Grasshoppers 2–2
- Tue 1 Sep · H v BSC Young Boys 2–4
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lausanne 3–2
- Sat 22 Aug · H v FC Basel 1893 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Lugano 0–5
FC VaduzWLWLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Lausanne 3–1
- Wed 2 Sep · A v FC Luzern 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Grasshoppers 5–2
- Sun 23 Aug · A v BSC Young Boys 2–4
- Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Sion 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Zurich have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Zurich have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Zurich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Zurich's last 5.
- FC Zurich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Vaduz have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Vaduz have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Vaduz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of FC Vaduz's last 5.
- FC Vaduz kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Zurich
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Vaduz
Rest: 8 days · 3 matches in 14d
Letzigrund Stadion
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Zurich vs FC Vaduz?
- Our model makes FC Zurich the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in FC Zurich vs FC Vaduz?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs FC Vaduz?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.