Super League · Regular Season - 9
LausannevFC Lugano
Lausanne
FC Lugano·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Lausanne and FC Lugano finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lau / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lausanne down the side and FC Lugano across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Lugano43% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Lugano the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lausanne
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
FC Lugano
Confirmed · 3-5-1-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LausanneLLDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Servette FC 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v FC Vaduz 1–3
- Wed 2 Sep · A v FC Thun 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Zurich 2–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Luzern 0–1
FC LuganoWDWWW
- Wed 16 Sep · H v FC ST. Gallen 4–1
- Sat 12 Sep · H v BSC Young Boys 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v FC Basel 1893 3–1
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Servette FC 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Sion 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lausanne have won 0 of their last 5.
- Lausanne have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lausanne's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lausanne's last 5.
- Lausanne kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Lugano have won 4 of their last 5.
- FC Lugano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Lugano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Lugano's last 5.
- FC Lugano kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lausanne
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
FC Lugano
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne · Referee: Urs Schnyder, Switzerland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
- Our model makes FC Lugano the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
- Lausanne line up in a 3-4-3, FC Lugano in a 3-5-1-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.