1. Lig · Regular Season - 7
Fatih KaragümrükvManisa F.K.
Fatih Karagümrük
Manisa F.K.·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%). Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Fat / Man | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Fatih Karagümrük down the side and Manisa F.K. across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Fatih Karagümrük45% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Fatih Karagümrük the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Manisa F.K.
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Fatih KaragümrükLDDWW
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Batman Petrolspor 3–4
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Kayserispor 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v İstanbulspor 1–1
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Bursaspor 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Ümraniyespor 2–1
Manisa F.K.LLDDW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Bursaspor 1–2
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Iğdır FK 2–4
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Bodrum FK 0–0
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Sivasspor 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Vanspor FK 4–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fatih Karagümrük have won 2 of their last 5.
- Fatih Karagümrük have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Fatih Karagümrük's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Fatih Karagümrük's last 5.
- Fatih Karagümrük kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Manisa F.K. have won 1 of their last 5.
- Manisa F.K. have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Manisa F.K.'s last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Manisa F.K.'s last 5.
- Manisa F.K. kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Manisa F.K.
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul · Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
- Our model makes Fatih Karagümrük the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
- Fatih Karagümrük line up in a 4-2-3-1, Manisa F.K. in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.