1. Lig · Regular Season - 7
Iğdır FKvMardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Mardin 1969·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Iğdır FK and Mardin 1969 finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Iğd / Mar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Iğdır FK down the side and Mardin 1969 across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 23% against 26%.
What we think
- Iğdır FK45% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Iğdır FK the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, which is what the market has it at too (47%).
For comparison, the market gives Iğdır FK a 40% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Now: 40% home · 28% draw · 32% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Iğdır FK
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Mardin 1969
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Iğdır FKWWWLL
- Mon 7 Sep · A v İstanbulspor 2–1
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Manisa F.K. 4–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Esenler Erokspor 1–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Kayserispor 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Bursaspor 0–1
Mardin 1969WDDWW
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Bodrum FK 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Sivasspor 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Vanspor FK 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Boluspor 3–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Antalyaspor 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Iğdır FK have won 3 of their last 5.
- Iğdır FK have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Iğdır FK's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Iğdır FK's last 5.
- Iğdır FK kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Mardin 1969 have won 3 of their last 5.
- Mardin 1969 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Mardin 1969's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Mardin 1969's last 5.
- Mardin 1969 kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Iğdır FK
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Mardin 1969
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Aktepe Stadium, Ankara · Referee: A. D. Kayatepe
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Iğdır FK vs Mardin 1969?
- Our model makes Iğdır FK the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Iğdır FK vs Mardin 1969?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Iğdır FK vs Mardin 1969?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Iğdır FK vs Mardin 1969?
- Iğdır FK line up in a 4-1-4-1, Mardin 1969 in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.