1. Lig · Regular Season - 7
Kayserisporvİstanbulspor
Kayserispor
İstanbulspor·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Kayserispor and İstanbulspor finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Kay / İst | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kayserispor down the side and İstanbulspor across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 33%.
What we think
- Kayserispor40% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Kayserispor the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 25% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, against the market’s 56% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Kayserispor a 66% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 20% draw · 12% away
Now: 66% home · 21% draw · 13% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Kayserispor
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kayserispor
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
İstanbulspor
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KayserisporWDLWW
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Esenler Erokspor 3–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Fatih Karagümrük 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Bursaspor 1–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Iğdır FK 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Sivasspor 2–0
İstanbulsporLLDLD
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Iğdır FK 1–2
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Bursaspor 0–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Fatih Karagümrük 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vanspor FK 2–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Bodrum FK 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kayserispor have won 3 of their last 5.
- Kayserispor have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Kayserispor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Kayserispor's last 5.
- Kayserispor kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- İstanbulspor have won 0 of their last 5.
- İstanbulspor have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of İstanbulspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of İstanbulspor's last 5.
- İstanbulspor kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kayserispor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
İstanbulspor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri · Referee: T. Doman
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Kayserispor vs İstanbulspor?
- Our model makes Kayserispor the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- How many goals are expected in Kayserispor vs İstanbulspor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs İstanbulspor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Kayserispor vs İstanbulspor?
- Kayserispor line up in a 4-4-2, İstanbulspor in a 4-1-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.