1. Lig · Regular Season - 8
Mardin 1969vKayserispor
Mardin 1969
Kayserispor·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Mardin 1969 and Kayserispor finish on some other score 57% of the time.
| Mar / Kay | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Mardin 1969 down the side and Kayserispor across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Mardin 196943% · Match result
- Under 2.558% · Goals
- No53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Mardin 1969 the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 42%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Mardin 1969
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Kayserispor
Confirmed · 4-1-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Mardin 1969LWDDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Iğdır FK 0–1
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Bodrum FK 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Sivasspor 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Vanspor FK 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Boluspor 3–0
KayserisporWWDLW
- Mon 14 Sep · H v İstanbulspor 4–0
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Esenler Erokspor 3–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Fatih Karagümrük 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Bursaspor 1–2
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Iğdır FK 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Mardin 1969 have won 2 of their last 5.
- Mardin 1969 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Mardin 1969's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Mardin 1969's last 5.
- Mardin 1969 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Kayserispor have won 3 of their last 5.
- Kayserispor have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Kayserispor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Kayserispor's last 5.
- Kayserispor kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Mardin 1969
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Kayserispor
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
21 Kasım Stadium, Mardin · Referee: R. Coskunses
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Kayserispor?
- Our model makes Mardin 1969 the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Mardin 1969 vs Kayserispor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 42%, and under 2.5 at 58%.
- Will both teams score in Mardin 1969 vs Kayserispor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, against 53% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Mardin 1969 vs Kayserispor?
- Mardin 1969 line up in a 4-1-4-1, Kayserispor in a 4-1-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.