1. Lig · Regular Season - 7
SivassporvMuğlaspor
Sivasspor
Muğlaspor·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Sivasspor and Muğlaspor finish on some other score 60% of the time.
| Siv / Muğ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sivasspor down the side and Muğlaspor across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 45% against 49%.
What we think
- Sivasspor48% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sivasspor the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Sivasspor a 48% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Now: 48% home · 27% draw · 25% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sivasspor
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Muğlaspor
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SivassporWDLDL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Antalyaspor 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Mardin 1969 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Batman Petrolspor 1–2
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Manisa F.K. 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Kayserispor 0–2
MuğlasporDWWDD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Vanspor FK 2–2
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Ümraniyespor 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Boluspor 2–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Bodrum FK 0–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Bandırmaspor 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sivasspor have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sivasspor have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Sivasspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sivasspor's last 5.
- Sivasspor kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Muğlaspor have won 2 of their last 5.
- Muğlaspor have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Muğlaspor's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Muğlaspor's last 5.
- Muğlaspor kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sivasspor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Muğlaspor
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas · Referee: F. Tokail
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Sivasspor vs Muğlaspor?
- Our model makes Sivasspor the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Sivasspor vs Muğlaspor?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Muğlaspor?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sivasspor vs Muğlaspor?
- Sivasspor line up in a 4-1-4-1, Muğlaspor in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.