Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
FC CincinnativDC United
FC Cincinnati
DC United·
1Headline
What we think
- FC Cincinnati61% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Cincinnati the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives FC Cincinnati a 60% chance. Our model makes it 61%.
2Market
Open: 60% home · 21% draw · 20% away
Now: 60% home · 21% draw · 20% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Cincinnati
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- O. Nwobodo — out (Red Card)
- K. Fletcher — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Miazga — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Robinson — out (Injury)
- A. Powell — out (Leg Injury)
- R. Celentano — out (Leg Injury)
DC United
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Peglow — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Rowles — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Hefti — out (Yellow Cards)
- T. Baribo — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Nealis — out (Broken collarbone)
- L. Munteanu — out (Thigh Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC CincinnatiDDLLD
- Yesterday · A v Houston Dynamo 2–2(xG 2.9–1.2)
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Charlotte 3–3
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nashville SC 0–4(xG 1.9–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seattle Sounders 1–1
DC UnitedLDWDL
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Charlotte 1–2(xG 2.9–0.9)
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atlanta United FC 0–0
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Columbus Crew 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 0–0(xG 1.2–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Cincinnati have won 0 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Cincinnati's last 5.
- FC Cincinnati kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- DC United have won 1 of their last 5.
- DC United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of DC United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of DC United's last 5.
- DC United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Cincinnati
Rest: 32 days · 0 matches in 14d
DC United
Rest: 32 days · 0 matches in 14d
TQL Stadium, Cincinnati · Referee: T. Ford
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
- Our model makes FC Cincinnati the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
- FC Cincinnati's reported absences and doubts include O. Nwobodo, K. Fletcher, M. Miazga, M. Robinson and 2 others. DC United's include Peglow, K. Rowles, S. Hefti, T. Baribo and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Cincinnati vs DC United?
- FC Cincinnati line up in a 3-5-2, DC United in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.