Matchday Briefing
What we would back today
Nothing yet — we hold no prices for today's matches, so there has been nothing to weigh. This fills in as the odds come in.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
We recommend; we never guarantee. The rule behind these has never been tested. Our calibration is measured on 8,926 historical matches, but that corpus holds no prices — so there is no past market to have beaten, and nothing has ever checked whether an edge we claim is real. Only 17 of our published forecasts have settled against a captured price. That count is the only evidence there will ever be, and it is slow: at roughly seven recommendations a day it takes about two months to tell a five-point edge from noise, and the better part of a year for the two-point minimum we actually use. Nothing here will be settled soon — see accuracy.
Do both sides find the net?
We are not publishing a forecast for this market at the moment: it did not pass our own calibration checks on held-out matches, so we would be showing you a number we do not trust. The market's price is still shown where we have it, and accuracy says which markets currently pass.
Ordered by how much we know — lineups, injuries, market, forecast — not by kick-off time. The dots on each row are that measure.
- ArsenalvLeedsPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- SC FreiburgvFC Schalke 04Bundesliganot checked for this forecast
- FSV Mainz 05vBayer LeverkusenBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- Borussia DortmundvWerder BremenBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- 1899 HoffenheimvHamburger SVBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- FC AugsburgvBayern MünchenBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- RB LeipzigvEintracht FrankfurtBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- Union BerlinvSV ElversbergBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- SC Paderborn 07vVfB StuttgartBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- 1. FC KölnvBorussia MönchengladbachBundesliganot checked for this forecast
- ChelseavBournemouthPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- IpswichvFulhamPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- Aston VillavBrentfordPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- SunderlandvBrightonPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
- LillevLe HavreLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- NicevStrasbourgLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- Paris Saint GermainvLe MansLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- MonacovToulouseLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- RennesvAuxerreLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- LorientvParis FCLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- Stade Brestois 29vAngersLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- Estac TroyesvMarseilleLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- LensvLyonLigue 1not checked for this forecast
- Manchester UnitedvTottenhamPremier Leaguenot checked for this forecast
Premier League
Bundesliga
Ligue 1
