League Two · Regular Season - 8

Bristol RoversvExeter City

·

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Bristol Rovers a 55% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Bristol RoversModel pendingMarket 55%
Bristol Rovers:, no forecast published, market 55%

2Market

Open: 55% home · 24% draw · 21% away

Now: 55% home · 25% draw · 20% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards the draw

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs55%
Draw—vs25%
Away—vs20%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs51%
Under 2.5—vs49%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs76%
Under 1.5—vs24%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs29%
Under 3.5—vs71%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs53%
No—vs47%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Bristol Rovers

Confirmed · formation n/a

No reported absences.

Exeter City

Confirmed · formation n/a

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Bristol RoversLLWWW

  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Gillingham 0–3
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Grimsby 0–2
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Rotherham 1–0
  • Tue 1 Sep · H v Colchester 2–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Crawley Town 2–0

Exeter CityDLDDL

  • Sat 19 Sep · H v Tranmere 0–0
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Port Vale 0–1
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Walsall 0–0
  • Tue 1 Sep · H v Barnet 1–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v York 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Bristol Rovers
  • Bristol Rovers have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Bristol Rovers have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Bristol Rovers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 0 of Bristol Rovers's last 5.
  • Bristol Rovers kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
Exeter City
  • Exeter City have won 0 of their last 5.
  • Exeter City have scored in 2 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Exeter City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Exeter City's last 5.
  • Exeter City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Bristol Rovers

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Exeter City

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Memorial Stadium, Bristol

8Red flags