League Two · Regular Season - 9
ChesterfieldvTranmere
Chesterfield
Tranmere·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Chesterfield and Tranmere finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Che / Tra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chesterfield down the side and Tranmere across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 34%.
What we think
- Chesterfield58% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Chesterfield the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives Chesterfield a 57% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 23% draw · 20% away
Now: 57% home · 23% draw · 20% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chesterfield
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Tranmere
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ChesterfieldLWWDD
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Cheltenham 1–2
- Sat 19 Sep · H v York 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Oldham 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Barnet 3–3
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Gillingham 1–1
TranmereDDLWD
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Walsall 1–1
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Exeter City 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Gillingham 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Oldham 2–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Rotherham 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chesterfield have won 2 of their last 5.
- Chesterfield have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Chesterfield's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Chesterfield's last 5.
- Chesterfield kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Tranmere have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tranmere have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Tranmere's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Tranmere's last 5.
- Tranmere kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Chesterfield
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Tranmere
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
- Our model makes Chesterfield the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.