Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Alaves v Osasuna

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

← Back to the full record

Chain intact across all 2034 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
10872026-09-04 03:05Alaves vOsasuna41% / 29% / 30%our call landedwe called home 41% · home winf56a952de47b…
8152026-09-03 06:05Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home wind6c48bde7891…
6562026-09-02 12:11Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home win6797f8fe3f9d…
5342026-09-01 18:07Alaves vOsasuna39% / 30% / 31%our call landedwe called home 39% · home win956e31883f71…
4892026-09-01 12:06Alaves vOsasuna37% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 37% · home winea46bf244668…
4462026-09-01 11:06Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home win0e8db81a366b…
4032026-09-01 08:06Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home winae83598a2c3d…
3602026-09-01 07:06Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home win61f3c49d0e76…
3172026-08-31 09:07Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home wine0b6b91b56a0…
2692026-08-31 07:07Alaves vOsasuna37% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 37% · home win2fe8d5aefc19…
2212026-08-31 06:07Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home win4c5ec6071317…
1732026-08-30 16:07Alaves vOsasuna37% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 37% · home win3e3387e6f1c1…
1132026-08-30 15:07Alaves vOsasuna38% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 38% · home win154ba7ea2e46…
532026-08-30 10:07Alaves vOsasuna37% / 30% / 32%our call landedwe called home 37% · home winf98853f35df0…

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.