La Liga · Regular Season - 4

AlavesvOsasuna

·

5 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Alaves41% · Match result
  • Over 1.574% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5

  • We make this 74% against a market price of 64% — 10 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 79% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 1.8 goals, and 2.3 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 2.4 goals.
  • 10 players reported unavailable — 6 for Alaves, 4 for Osasuna.

Our forecast makes Alaves the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Alaves a 42% chance. Our model makes it 41%.

AlavesModel 41% [35%–49%]Market 42%
Alaves:, our forecast 41%, between 35% and 49%, market 42%

2Market

Open: 42% home · 31% draw · 27% away

Now: 42% home · 31% draw · 27% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home41%vs42%−1pp
Draw29%vs31%−2pp
Away30%vs27%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs38%
Under 2.5—vs62%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs64%+10pp
Under 1.526%vs36%−10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs17%
Under 3.5—vs83%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs45%+8pp
No47%vs55%−8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Alaves

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
  • A. Manas — out (Injury)
  • M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
  • N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
  • T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
  • F. Garces — out (Suspended)

Osasuna

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
  • V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AlavesWDWLW

  • Fri 28 Aug · H v Villarreal 1–0(xG 0.8–1.3)
  • Thu 20 Aug · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Getafe 3–0
  • Sat 23 May · H v Rayo Vallecano 1–2
  • Sun 17 May · A v Oviedo 1–0

OsasunaWWDLL

  • Mon 31 Aug · H v Getafe 1–0(xG 1.7–0.7)
  • Thu 27 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–1(xG 2.7–0.1)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Levante 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
  • Sat 23 May · A v Getafe 0–1
  • Sun 17 May · H v Espanyol 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Alaves
  • Alaves have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Alaves have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Alaves's last 5.
  • Alaves kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
Osasuna
  • Osasuna have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
  • Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, Alaves have won 0, Osasuna 5, with 3 drawn.

Alaves W–D–L
0–3–5
Over 2.5
3 of 8
Both scored
3 of 8
  • Alaves 2–2 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 3–0 Alaves
  • Alaves 1–1 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 2–2 Alaves
  • Osasuna 1–0 Alaves
  • Alaves 0–2 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 1–0 Alaves
  • Alaves 0–2 Osasuna

7Context

Alaves

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

Osasuna

Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d

Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz · Referee: J. Sanchez

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model makes Alaves the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves's reported absences and doubts include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Osasuna's include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
In their last 8 meetings, Alaves have won 0, Osasuna 5, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.