Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
AustinvSan Jose Earthquakes
Austin
San Jose Earthquakes·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- San Jose Earthquakes40% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes San Jose Earthquakes the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Austin the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Austin a 43% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Now: 43% home · 25% draw · 32% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Austin
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- M. Uzuni — out (International duty)
- Guilherme Biro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Placheta — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Wolff — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Desler — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- B. Hines-Ike — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Nelson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Pereira — out (Injury)
- J. Rosales — out (Yellow Cards)
San Jose Earthquakes
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- R. Vieira — out (International duty)
- P. Judd — out (Injury)
- T. Werner — out (Injury)
- D. Johnson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Edwards — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Tsakiris — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gunn — out (International duty)
- O. Bouda — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AustinWDWLL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 2–1(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–1
- Mon 17 Aug · H v FC Dallas 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1
San Jose EarthquakesDLLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v St. Louis City 1–3
- Sat 1 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 2–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Austin have won 2 of their last 5.
- Austin have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Austin's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Austin's last 5.
- Austin kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 0 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Austin W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- San Jose Earthquakes 5–1 Austin
7Context
Austin
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Jose Earthquakes
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Q2 Stadium, Austin · Referee: S. Boiko
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Austin at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Austin's reported absences and doubts include M. Uzuni, Guilherme Biro, P. Placheta, O. Wolff and 5 others. San Jose Earthquakes's include R. Vieira, P. Judd, T. Werner, D. Johnson and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Austin line up in a 3-4-3, San Jose Earthquakes in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.