Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
FC DallasvSporting Kansas City
FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City·
4 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- FC Dallas68% · Match result
- Over 1.585% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Dallas the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 77%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 70%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives FC Dallas a 70% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 70% home · 17% draw · 12% away
Now: 70% home · 17% draw · 12% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Dallas
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Ramiro — out (Yellow Cards)
- P. Musa — out (International duty)
- B. Kamungo — out (International duty)
- O. Urhoghide — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. A. Julio Santos — out (Injury)
- Geovane Jesus — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Binyamin — out (International duty)
Sporting Kansas City
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Diego Borges — out (Groin Injury)
- Capita — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. James — out (Knee Injury)
- O. Blorian — out (Chest Injury)
- Z. Bassong — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Davis — out (Injury)
- K. Agyabeng — out (Red Card)
- J. Reynolds — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC DallasDLWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v St. Louis City 3–3(xG 1.0–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–5
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Real Salt Lake 4–3
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Austin 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 0–0
Sporting Kansas CityLLDLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3(xG 0.4–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v St. Louis City 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Dallas have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Dallas have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Dallas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Dallas's last 5.
- FC Dallas kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 0 of their last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Sporting Kansas City's last 5.
- Sporting Kansas City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Dallas
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Sporting Kansas City
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Toyota Stadium, Frisco · Referee: L. Hernandez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Our model makes FC Dallas the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 70%.
- Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?
- FC Dallas's reported absences and doubts include Ramiro, P. Musa, B. Kamungo, O. Urhoghide and 3 others. Sporting Kansas City's include Diego Borges, Capita, I. James, O. Blorian and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?
- FC Dallas line up in a 4-4-2, Sporting Kansas City in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.