Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Portland TimbersvMinnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
Minnesota United FC·
5 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Portland Timbers46% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Portland Timbers the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Portland Timbers a 40% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 25% draw · 33% away
Now: 40% home · 25% draw · 35% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Portland Timbers
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Portland Timbers
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Z. McGraw — out (Inactive)
- O. Fernandez — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Da Costa — out (Concussion)
- V. Janssen — out (Red Card)
- D. Chara — out (Thigh Injury)
- A. Bonetig — out (Upper Back Injury)
- J. Mosquera — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Caicedo — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Bassett — out (Injury)
- A. Aravena — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Waterman — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Surman — out (Knee Injury)
Minnesota United FC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Triantis — out (International duty)
- J. Pereyra — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Harvey — out (International duty)
- M. Boxall — out (Yellow Cards)
- B. Hlongwane — out (Knee Injury)
- P. Stroud — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodriguez — out (International duty)
- A. Smir — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Portland TimbersLDWLW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Austin 1–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Diego 3–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Chicago Fire 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Seattle Sounders 2–1
Minnesota United FCDWLDD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Orlando City SC 3–3(xG 3.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Jose Earthquakes 5–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Real Salt Lake 1–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v San Diego 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Portland Timbers have won 2 of their last 5.
- Portland Timbers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Portland Timbers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Portland Timbers's last 5.
- Portland Timbers kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Minnesota United FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Minnesota United FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Minnesota United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Minnesota United FC's last 5.
- Minnesota United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Portland Timbers W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Minnesota United FC 2–0 Portland Timbers
7Context
Portland Timbers
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Minnesota United FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Providence Park, Portland · Referee: F. Dujic
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC?
- Our model makes Portland Timbers the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC?
- Portland Timbers's reported absences and doubts include Z. McGraw, O. Fernandez, D. Da Costa, V. Janssen and 8 others. Minnesota United FC's include N. Triantis, J. Pereyra, C. Harvey, M. Boxall and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC?
- Portland Timbers line up in a 4-3-3, Minnesota United FC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.