Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Real Salt LakevLos Angeles FC
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Los Angeles FC45% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles FC the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles FC a 42% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 25% draw · 41% away
Now: 32% home · 26% draw · 42% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Real Salt Lake
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Salt Lake
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- D. Zagar — out (Inactive)
- J. Sanabria — out (International duty)
- L. Moisa — out (International duty)
- S. Lobjanidze — out (International duty)
- A. Katranis — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Luna — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Engel — out (Hamstring Injury)
- J. J. Arias — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Guilavogui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Hezarkhani — out (Toe Injury)
- Z. Booth — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Yedlin — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Henry — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (International duty)
Los Angeles FC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Shaffelburg — out (International duty)
- A. Long — out (Red Card)
- D. Bouanga — out (International duty)
- T. Tillman — out (Injury)
- S. Palencia — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Walta — out (International duty)
- J. Terry — out (International duty)
- M. Choiniere — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real Salt LakeLLLDD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1(xG 0.1–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–4
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–1
- Sun 2 Aug · A v St. Louis City 1–1
Los Angeles FCDDLLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v DC United 0–0(xG 1.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v San Diego 0–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Salt Lake have won 0 of their last 5.
- Real Salt Lake have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Salt Lake's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Salt Lake's last 5.
- Real Salt Lake kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 0 of Los Angeles FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Los Angeles FC's last 5.
- Los Angeles FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Real Salt Lake W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Los Angeles FC 3–1 Real Salt Lake
7Context
Real Salt Lake
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Los Angeles FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
America First Field, Sandy · Referee: A. Chapman
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model makes Los Angeles FC the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?
- Real Salt Lake's reported absences and doubts include D. Zagar, J. Sanabria, L. Moisa, S. Lobjanidze and 10 others. Los Angeles FC's include J. Shaffelburg, A. Long, D. Bouanga, T. Tillman and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?
- Real Salt Lake line up in a 3-4-3, Los Angeles FC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.