Serie A · Regular Season - 26
FluminensevVasco DA Gama
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Fluminense56% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Fluminense
Best price 2.33 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 56% against a market price of 42% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 84% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 29 players reported unavailable — 19 for Fluminense, 10 for Vasco DA Gama.
Our forecast makes Fluminense the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 50% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Fluminense a 42% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 29% draw · 29% away
Now: 42% home · 29% draw · 29% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fluminense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Thiago Silva — out (Injury)
- Ignacio — out (Injury)
- Guga — out (Inactive)
- G. Cano — out (Injury)
- Alisson — out (Hip Injury)
- Hercules — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Acosta — out (Yellow Cards)
- John Kennedy — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Freytes — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Millan — out (Muscle Injury)
- Jemmes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Nonato — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Canobbio — out (International duty)
- J. Savarino — out (Rest)
- Martinelli — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Matheus Reis — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Bernal — out (Knee Injury)
- PH Ganso — doubtful (Inactive)
- Y. Soteldo — out (Injury)
Vasco DA Gama
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Cuiabano — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rojas — out (Inactive)
- Jair — out (Muscle Injury)
- Brenner — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Saldivia — out (Calf Injury)
- C. Cuesta — out (Red Card)
- Paulo Henrique — out (Ankle Injury)
- Cauan Barros — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Rodriguez — out (Yellow Cards)
- Mateus Carvalho — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FluminenseDWWDD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Atletico Paranaense 3–3(xG 0.6–1.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Remo 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Palmeiras 3–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Botafogo 1–1
- Thu 30 Jul · H v Bahia 0–0
Vasco DA GamaWLLDD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 3–1(xG 3.2–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Palmeiras 1–4
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Santos 0–3
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Bahia 0–0
- Sat 25 Jul · H v Mirassol 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5.
- Fluminense have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Fluminense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Fluminense's last 5.
- Fluminense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama have won 1 of their last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 5.
- Vasco DA Gama kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Fluminense W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Vasco DA Gama 3–2 Fluminense
7Context
Fluminense
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Vasco DA Gama
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: D. Lacerda
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Our model makes Fluminense the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fluminense's reported absences and doubts include Thiago Silva, Ignacio, Guga, G. Cano and 15 others. Vasco DA Gama's include Cuiabano, J. Rojas, Jair, Brenner and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fluminense line up in a 4-2-3-1, Vasco DA Gama in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.