Serie A · Regular Season - 26
InternacionalvSantos
Internacional
Santos·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Internacional54% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 76% against a market price of 70% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 71% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.1 goals, and 3.0 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 30 players reported unavailable — 13 for Internacional, 17 for Santos.
Our forecast makes Internacional the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Internacional a 49% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 27% draw · 24% away
Now: 49% home · 28% draw · 23% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Santos
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Internacional
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- Matheus Bahia — out (Red Card)
- R. Villagra — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Bernabei — out (Yellow Cards)
- Paulinho Paula — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Mercado — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Gabriel — out (Red Card)
- Thiago Maia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Arhin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Rochet — out (Lower Back Injury)
- Kayky — out (Ankle Injury)
- F. Torres — out (International duty)
- A. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- Bruno Tabata — out (Injury)
Santos
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Lucas Verissimo — out (Ankle Injury)
- Gabriel Barbosa — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Brazao — out (Inactive)
- A. Barreal — out (Thigh Injury)
- Neymar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Joao Schmidt — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gabriel Menino — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Frias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Moises — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Vinicius — out (Back Injury)
- Gustavo Henrique — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Thaciano — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Mayke — out (Inactive)
- L. Diaz — out (Inactive)
- Ze Rafael — out (Ankle Injury)
- Willian Arao — out (Inactive)
- Tiquinho Soares — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
InternacionalLDDDD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Bahia 2–3(xG 1.7–2.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atletico-MG 0–0
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Remo 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Palmeiras 0–0
- Wed 29 Jul · H v Flamengo 1–1
SantosWDWLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Corinthians 1–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Mirassol 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 3–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 0–2
- Sat 25 Jul · H v Chapecoense-sc 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Internacional have won 0 of their last 5.
- Internacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Internacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Internacional's last 5.
- Internacional kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Santos have won 2 of their last 5.
- Santos have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Santos's last 5.
- Santos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Internacional W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Santos 1–2 Internacional
7Context
Internacional
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Santos
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre · Referee: A. Gomes Stefano
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Internacional vs Santos?
- Our model makes Internacional the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Internacional vs Santos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Internacional vs Santos?
- Internacional's reported absences and doubts include Matheus Bahia, R. Villagra, A. Bernabei, Paulinho Paula and 9 others. Santos's include Lucas Verissimo, Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Brazao, A. Barreal and 13 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Internacional vs Santos?
- Internacional line up in a 4-1-4-1, Santos in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.