Serie A · Regular Season - 26
CorinthiansvChapecoense-sc
Corinthians
Chapecoense-sc·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Corinthians71% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Corinthians the most likely of the three results, at 71% (we would not be surprised by anything from 64% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 71% this result does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Corinthians a 67% chance. Our model makes it 71%.
2Market
Open: 70% home · 20% draw · 10% away
Now: 67% home · 21% draw · 12% away
Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Corinthians
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Corinthians
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Allan — out (Loan agreement)
- Gabriel Paulista — out (Groin Injury)
- Raniele — out (Red Card)
- Hugo Souza — out (Yellow Cards)
- Breno Bidon — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheuzinho — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Bidu — out (Inactive)
- Andre Ramalho — out (Inactive)
- Yuri Alberto — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre — out (Muscle Injury)
- Vitinho — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Depay — out (Rest)
- Charles Rigon — out (Inactive)
- A. Carrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Joao Pedro — out (Muscle Injury)
- Gui Negao — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Cesar — out (Thigh Injury)
- Hugo — out (Knee Injury)
- Felipe Longo — out (Elbow Injury)
- M. Pereira — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Martinez — doubtful (Inactive)
Chapecoense-sc
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Giovanni Augusto — out (Inactive)
- Joao Paulo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Victor Caetano — out (Yellow Cards)
- Y. Bolasie — out (Injury)
- Rafael Carvalheira — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio Garcez — out (Thigh Injury)
- Eduardo Doma — out (Yellow Cards)
- Camilo Reijers — out (Yellow Cards)
- Rafael Thyere — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Robert Conceicao — out (Knee Injury)
- Everton — out (Yellow Cards)
- Marcos Vinicius — doubtful (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CorinthiansLLLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Santos 0–1(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Cruzeiro 1–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v RB Bragantino 2–0
- Thu 30 Jul · H v Atletico Paranaense 0–0
Chapecoense-scLWDLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gremio 1–3(xG 2.8–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sao Paulo 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Bahia 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Coritiba 1–2
- Sat 25 Jul · A v Santos 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5.
- Corinthians have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Corinthians's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Corinthians's last 5.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have won 1 of their last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Chapecoense-sc's last 5.
- Chapecoense-sc kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Corinthians W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Chapecoense-sc 0–0 Corinthians
7Context
Corinthians
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Chapecoense-sc
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo · Referee: W. do Nascimento
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Our model makes Corinthians the most likely result at 71%. Most likely is not likely — at 71% it does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Corinthians's reported absences and doubts include Allan, Gabriel Paulista, Raniele, Hugo Souza and 17 others. Chapecoense-sc's include Giovanni Augusto, Joao Paulo, Victor Caetano, Y. Bolasie and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Corinthians line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chapecoense-sc in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.