Serie A · Regular Season - 26
BotafogovPalmeiras
Botafogo
Palmeiras·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Botafogo38% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Botafogo the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Palmeiras the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 28%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Palmeiras a 46% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 27% draw · 44% away
Now: 28% home · 26% draw · 46% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Palmeiras
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Botafogo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Barria — out (Yellow Cards)
- Arthur Cabral — out (Yellow Cards)
- Matheus Martins — out (Inactive)
- Marcal — out (Red Card)
- N. Ferraresi — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Correa — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Ponte — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Medina — out (Yellow Cards)
- Junior Santos — out (Foot Injury)
- Bastos — out (Injury)
- Alex Telles — out (Yellow Cards)
- Nathan Fernandes — out (Knee Injury)
- Allan — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Barboza — out (Inactive)
- S. Rodriguez — out (Injury)
- C. Ramos — out (Inactive)
- Newton — out (Inactive)
- Kaio Pantaleao — out (Knee Injury)
Palmeiras
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Barboza — out (Red Card)
- Murilo — out (Yellow Cards)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sosa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Piquerez — out (Foot Injury)
- Paulinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Khellven — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- Bruno Fuchs — out (Surgery)
- J. Lopez — out (Inactive)
- Jefte — out (Knee Injury)
- Mauricio — out (International duty)
- J. Arias — out (International duty)
- Vitor Roque — out (Ankle Injury)
- Figueiredo — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BotafogoLLLDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Flamengo 0–3(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Atletico Paranaense 2–3
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Vitoria 0–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Fluminense 1–1
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Cruzeiro 1–0
PalmeirasDWLDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mirassol 1–1(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Vasco DA Gama 4–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Fluminense 2–3
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Internacional 0–0
- Thu 30 Jul · A v Vitoria 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Botafogo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Botafogo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Botafogo's last 5.
- Botafogo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Palmeiras have won 2 of their last 5.
- Palmeiras have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Palmeiras's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Palmeiras's last 5.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Botafogo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Palmeiras 2–1 Botafogo
7Context
Botafogo
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Palmeiras
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: R. Pereira
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
- Our model makes Botafogo the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours Palmeiras at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
- Botafogo's reported absences and doubts include K. Barria, Arthur Cabral, Matheus Martins, Marcal and 14 others. Palmeiras's include A. Barboza, Murilo, Allan Elias, R. Sosa and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?
- Botafogo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Palmeiras in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.