Serie A · Regular Season - 26
CoritibavMirassol
Coritiba
Mirassol·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Mirassol44% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 78% against a market price of 71% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 3.3 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 26 players reported unavailable — 15 for Coritiba, 11 for Mirassol.
Our forecast makes Mirassol the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Coritiba the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Coritiba a 40% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away
Now: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Coritiba
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Keno — out (Inactive)
- Joao Pedro Chermont — out (Inactive)
- Jacy — out (Inactive)
- Breno Lopes — out (Red Card)
- Tiago Coser — out (Yellow Cards)
- Tinga — out (Muscle Injury)
- Pedro Rangel — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Lucas Ronier — out (Knee Injury)
- Josue — out (Injury)
- S. Gomez — out (Head Injury)
- Maicon — out (Inactive)
- Wallisson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Pedro Morisco — out (Shoulder Injury)
- Lucas Crepaldi — out (Inactive)
- Benassi — out (Toe Injury)
Mirassol
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Alesson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Walter — out (Injury)
- Neto Moura — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Carioca — out (Injury)
- Jose Aldo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre Luis — out (Muscle Injury)
- Yuri Lara — out (Ankle Injury)
- Negueba — out (Knee Injury)
- Eduardo — out (Red Card)
- Renato Marques — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Carius — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CoritibaWWDWL
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Remo 3–2(xG 1.5–2.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Sao Paulo 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Chapecoense-sc 2–1
- Fri 31 Jul · H v Cruzeiro 0–1
MirassolLDDLL
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Flamengo 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Palmeiras 1–1(xG 0.8–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santos 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Flamengo 1–5
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Coritiba have won 3 of their last 5.
- Coritiba have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Coritiba's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Coritiba's last 5.
- Coritiba kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have won 0 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Mirassol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Mirassol's last 5.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Coritiba W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Mirassol 0–1 Coritiba
7Context
Coritiba
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mirassol
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · Referee: A. Policarpo Bento
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Coritiba vs Mirassol?
- Our model makes Mirassol the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Coritiba at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Coritiba vs Mirassol?
- Coritiba's reported absences and doubts include Keno, Joao Pedro Chermont, Jacy, Breno Lopes and 11 others. Mirassol's include Alesson, Walter, Neto Moura, Edson Carioca and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Coritiba vs Mirassol?
- Coritiba line up in a 4-2-3-1, Mirassol in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.