Serie A · Regular Season - 4
FlamengovMirassol
Flamengo
Mirassol·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Flamengo and Mirassol finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fla / Mir | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Flamengo down the side and Mirassol across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 41%.
What we think
- Flamengo52% · Match result
- Over 2.555% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.32 at SuperbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 56% against a market price of 42% — 14 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 81% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.3 goals, and 2.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 8 of those 10.
- 26 players reported unavailable — 15 for Flamengo, 11 for Mirassol.
- The price has moved 4.8% towards Flamengo since it opened.
Our forecast makes Flamengo the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 82%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 55%, against the market’s 63% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Flamengo a 82% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 77% home · 15% draw · 7% away
Now: 82% home · 13% draw · 5% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Flamengo
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Flamengo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. Pulgar — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Paqueta — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Plata — out (Inactive)
- Evertton Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
- Bruno Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- N. de la Cruz — out (Muscle Injury)
- Leo Pereira — out (Rest)
- Everton — out (Illness)
- Alex Sandro — out (Calf Injury)
- Luiz Araujo — out (Knee Injury)
- G. de Arrascaeta — out (International duty)
- G. Varela — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jorginho — out (Toe Injury)
- Danilo — out (International duty)
- S. Niguez — out (Ankle Injury)
Mirassol
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- Alesson — out (Yellow Cards)
- Walter — out (Injury)
- Neto Moura — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Carioca — out (Injury)
- Jose Aldo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Andre Luis — out (Muscle Injury)
- Yuri Lara — out (Ankle Injury)
- Negueba — out (Knee Injury)
- Eduardo — out (Red Card)
- Renato Marques — out (Ankle Injury)
- Igor Carius — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FlamengoWLWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Botafogo 3–0(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Mirassol 5–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Vitoria 2–0
- Wed 29 Jul · A v Internacional 1–1
MirassolDDLLW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Palmeiras 1–1(xG 0.8–1.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santos 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Flamengo 1–5
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–3
- Wed 29 Jul · H v Remo 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Flamengo have won 3 of their last 5.
- Flamengo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Flamengo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Flamengo's last 5.
- Flamengo kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have won 1 of their last 5.
- Mirassol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Mirassol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mirassol's last 5.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Flamengo W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Mirassol 1–5 Flamengo
7Context
Flamengo
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mirassol
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro · Referee: A. Daronco
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Flamengo vs Mirassol?
- Our model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 82%.
- How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 55%, and under 2.5 at 45%.
- Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
- Flamengo's reported absences and doubts include E. Pulgar, Lucas Paqueta, G. Plata, Evertton Araujo and 11 others. Mirassol's include Alesson, Walter, Neto Moura, Edson Carioca and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Flamengo vs Mirassol?
- Flamengo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Mirassol in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.