Championship · Regular Season - 4
West BromvCharlton
West Brom
Charlton·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (16%), then 0-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%). West Brom and Charlton finish on some other score 58% of the time.
| Wes / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, West Brom down the side and Charlton across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 43% against 49%.
What we think
- West Brom48% · Match result
- Under 2.557% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 79% against a market price of 73% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 69% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 6 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 2.8 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 16 players reported unavailable — 4 for West Brom, 12 for Charlton.
- The price has moved 3.5% towards West Brom since it opened.
Our forecast makes West Brom the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 43%, against the market’s 49% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives West Brom a 57% chance. Our model makes it 48%.
2Market
Open: 53% home · 26% draw · 21% away
Now: 57% home · 25% draw · 19% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards West Brom
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
West Brom
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Galves — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Pereira — out (Red Card)
- M. Johnston — out (Broken Leg)
- T. Bany — out (Inactive)
Charlton
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Chalobah — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Koumetio — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Kelman — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Edwards — out (Ankle Injury)
- D. McNamara — out (Red Card)
- C. Sichenje — out (Knee Injury)
- W. Mannion — out (Shoulder Injury)
- M. Godden — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Burke — out (Inactive)
- K. Ramsay — out (Ankle Injury)
- T. Ouma — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Mbick — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
West BromLWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–3(xG 1.4–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Burnley 3–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Norwich 2–1
CharltonWWW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Preston 1–0(xG 0.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v West Ham 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Derby 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 3.
- West Brom have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of West Brom's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of West Brom's last 3.
- West Brom kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Charlton have won 3 of their last 3.
- Charlton have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Charlton's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Charlton's last 3.
- Charlton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
West Brom
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Charlton
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
The Hawthorns, West Bromwich · Referee: Farai Hallam, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win West Brom vs Charlton?
- Our model makes West Brom the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in West Brom vs Charlton?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 43%, and under 2.5 at 57%.
- Will both teams score in West Brom vs Charlton?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for West Brom vs Charlton?
- West Brom's reported absences and doubts include N. Galves, B. Pereira, M. Johnston, T. Bany. Charlton's include N. Chalobah, B. Koumetio, C. Kelman, J. Edwards and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.