Championship · Regular Season - 4
BurnleyvMiddlesbrough
Burnley
Middlesbrough·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Burnley and Middlesbrough finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bur / Mid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Burnley down the side and Middlesbrough across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 35%.
What we think
- Burnley50% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Burnley the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Middlesbrough the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 57% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Middlesbrough a 40% chance. Our model makes it 24%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 27% draw · 39% away
Now: 34% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Middlesbrough
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Burnley
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Ramsey — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Mejbri — out (Inactive)
- J. Bruun Larsen — out (Injury)
- D. Satpaev — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- O. Sonne — doubtful (Inactive)
- Lucas Pires — out (Inactive)
- J. Laurent — out (Red Card)
- B. Humphreys — out (Inactive)
- J. Cullen — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Beyer — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Barnes — out (Injury)
- J. Banel — out (Injury)
- E. Agyei — out (Injury)
Middlesbrough
Lineup not yet confirmed
- D. Strelec — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Jones — out (Inactive)
- J. Sarmiento — out (Inactive)
- R. Pukstas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Phillips — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Bangura — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Morris — out (Injury)
- T. Conway — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BurnleyLLDDL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Norwich 1–4(xG 0.9–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v West Brom 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v West Ham 2–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Wolves 1–1
- Mon 18 May · A v Arsenal 0–1
MiddlesbroughWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Brom 3–1(xG 2.5–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Blackburn 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Lincoln 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Burnley have won 0 of their last 5.
- Burnley have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Burnley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Burnley's last 5.
- Burnley kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Middlesbrough have won 2 of their last 3.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Middlesbrough's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Middlesbrough's last 3.
- Middlesbrough kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Burnley
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Middlesbrough
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Turf Moor, Burnley · Referee: Matt Donohue, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
- Our model makes Burnley the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market instead favours Middlesbrough at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
- Burnley's reported absences and doubts include A. Ramsey, H. Mejbri, J. Bruun Larsen, D. Satpaev and 10 others. Middlesbrough's include D. Strelec, A. Jones, J. Sarmiento, R. Pukstas and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.