Premiership · Regular Season - 5
KilmarnockvST Mirren
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Kilmarnock and ST Mirren finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Kil / ST | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Kilmarnock down the side and ST Mirren across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 37%.
What we think
- Kilmarnock44% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 73% against a market price of 63% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 77% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 6 matches between them averaged 4.3 goals, and 4.5 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Kilmarnock the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes ST Mirren the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 58% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives ST Mirren a 40% chance. Our model makes it 28%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 28% draw · 39% away
Now: 33% home · 26% draw · 40% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Kilmarnock
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
ST Mirren
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
KilmarnockLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Dundee Utd 0–4(xG 1.0–3.5)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Celtic 1–5
- Sun 2 Aug · A v ST Johnstone 3–4
ST MirrenDWW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Motherwell 3–3(xG 2.3–2.2)
- Sat 8 Aug · H v ST Johnstone 1–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Falkirk 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Kilmarnock have won 0 of their last 3.
- Kilmarnock have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 3 of Kilmarnock's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Kilmarnock's last 3.
- Kilmarnock kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- ST Mirren have won 2 of their last 3.
- ST Mirren have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 1 of ST Mirren's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of ST Mirren's last 3.
- ST Mirren kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Kilmarnock
Rest: 4 days · 1 match in 14d
ST Mirren
Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d
Rugby Park, Kilmarnock · Referee: D. Dickinson
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
- Our model makes Kilmarnock the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours ST Mirren at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
- Kilmarnock line up in a 3-5-2, ST Mirren in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.