Championship · Regular Season - 4
QPRvCardiff
QPR
Cardiff·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). QPR and Cardiff finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| QPR / Car | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, QPR down the side and Cardiff across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 40%.
What we think
- QPR47% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 72% against a market price of 60% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 85% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 6 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals, and 3.1 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 8 for QPR, 7 for Cardiff.
- The price has moved 3.6% towards QPR since it opened.
Our forecast makes QPR the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 62% — a 11 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives QPR a 53% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 25% draw · 26% away
Now: 53% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards QPR
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
QPR
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Obikwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Dunne — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Lamptey — out (Injury)
- R. Kone — out (Injury)
- B. Kemper — out (Ankle Injury)
- I. Chair — out (Injury)
- R. Kolli — out (Coach's decision)
- K. Dembele — out (Knee Injury)
Cardiff
Lineup not yet confirmed
- R. Colwill — out (Health problems)
- I. Davies — out (Injury)
- K. Bielik — doubtful (Inactive)
- G. Osho — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Chambers — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Lawlor — out (Muscle Injury)
- W. Fish — out (Hernia)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
QPRWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Blackburn 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Bolton 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Portsmouth 3–1
CardiffDDD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 2–2(xG 2.3–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Derby 2–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Wrexham 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- QPR have won 2 of their last 3.
- QPR have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of QPR's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of QPR's last 3.
- QPR kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
- Cardiff have won 0 of their last 3.
- Cardiff have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Cardiff's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cardiff's last 3.
- Cardiff kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
QPR
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cardiff
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Loftus Road Stadium, London · Referee: Tim Robinson, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win QPR vs Cardiff?
- Our model makes QPR the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- How many goals are expected in QPR vs Cardiff?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in QPR vs Cardiff?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for QPR vs Cardiff?
- QPR's reported absences and doubts include J. Obikwu, J. Dunne, T. Lamptey, R. Kone and 4 others. Cardiff's include R. Colwill, I. Davies, K. Bielik, G. Osho and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.