Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 3
St. TruidenvUnion St. Gilloise
St. Truiden
Union St. Gilloise·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–10.8–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (13%), then 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| St. / Uni | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, St. Truiden down the side and Union St. Gilloise across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 26% against 35%.
What we think
- Union St. Gilloise53% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 74% against a market price of 65% — 9 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 6 matches between them averaged 3.7 goals, and 3.5 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 57% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 25% home · 27% draw · 48% away
Now: 26% home · 26% draw · 48% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards St. Truiden
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
St. Truiden
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
St. TruidenWDD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Antwerp 4–1(xG 3.4–0.8)
- Fri 14 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 3–3
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Lommel United 1–1
Union St. GilloiseWDW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Anderlecht 3–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Zulte Waregem 0–0
- Sat 8 Aug · A v KVC Westerlo 5–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- St. Truiden have won 1 of their last 3.
- St. Truiden have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of St. Truiden's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of St. Truiden's last 3.
- St. Truiden kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Union St. Gilloise have won 2 of their last 3.
- Union St. Gilloise have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of Union St. Gilloise's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Union St. Gilloise's last 3.
- Union St. Gilloise kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
St. Truiden
Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d
Union St. Gilloise
Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d
Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden · Referee: N. Verboomen
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
- Our model makes Union St. Gilloise the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
- St. Truiden line up in a 4-2-3-1, Union St. Gilloise in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.