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Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 3

St. TruidenvUnion St. Gilloise

2026-09-02 ·

1Headline

Our bet on this match

None

We weighed 5 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

No forecast has been published for this fixture yet, so we have nothing of our own to tell you about the result.

For comparison, the market gives Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Union St. GilloiseModel pendingMarket 48%
Union St. Gilloise:, no forecast published, market 48%

2Market

Open: 25% home · 27% draw · 48% away

Now: 25% home · 27% draw · 48% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Our forecast beside the market price
MarketOutcomeOursPriceGap
Match resultHome25%
Draw27%
Away48%
Goals over 2.5Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Goals over 1.5Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Goals over 3.5Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams to scoreYes58%
No42%

Match result

Homevs25%
Drawvs27%
Awayvs48%

ours · market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5vs54%
Under 2.5vs46%

ours · market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5vs78%
Under 1.5vs22%

ours · market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5vs32%
Under 3.5vs68%

ours · market

Both teams to score

Yesvs58%
Novs42%

ours · market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

St. Truiden

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Union St. Gilloise

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

St. TruidenWDD

  • 2026-08-30 · A v Antwerp 41
  • 2026-08-14 · A v Cercle Brugge 33
  • 2026-08-08 · H v Lommel United 11

Union St. GilloiseWDW

  • 2026-08-30 · H v Anderlecht 30
  • 2026-08-15 · H v Zulte Waregem 00
  • 2026-08-08 · A v KVC Westerlo 51

5Head-to-head

Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.

No prior meetings on record.

6Context

St. Truiden

Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d

Union St. Gilloise

Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden · Referee: N. Verboomen

7Expert consensus

Not available yet — expert tracking launches in a later milestone.

8Red flags

9What would change this

Nothing to show until a forecast is published for this match. We do not estimate this from the market.