Championship · Regular Season - 4
MillwallvWrexham
Millwall
Wrexham·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Millwall and Wrexham finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Mil / Wre | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Millwall down the side and Wrexham across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 49%.
What we think
- Millwall42% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Millwall the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (49%).
For comparison, the market gives Millwall a 42% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 28% draw · 29% away
Now: 42% home · 28% draw · 29% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Millwall
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Millwall
Lineup not yet confirmed
- K. Lisbie — out (Injury)
- L. Jensen — out (Injury)
- T. Crama — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Esse — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Leonard — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Luongo — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Sykes — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Metcalfe — out (Red Card)
- C. De Norre — out (Injury)
- J. Coburn — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Cundle — out (Inactive)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Servais — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Mazou-Sacko — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Ivanovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Doughty — out (Hamstring Injury)
Wrexham
Lineup not yet confirmed
- O. Rathbone — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Cacace — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Cleworth — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Sheaf — out (Inactive)
- N. Broadhead — out (Inactive)
- S. Revan — out (Hamstring Injury)
- G. Thomason — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Windass — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MillwallLWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Southampton 1–5(xG 1.1–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Norwich 3–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Bristol City 2–0
WrexhamLDD
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Birmingham 1–2(xG 1.4–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Watford 1–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Cardiff 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Millwall have won 2 of their last 3.
- Millwall have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 2 of Millwall's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Millwall's last 3.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3.
- Wrexham have won 0 of their last 3.
- Wrexham have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 1 of Wrexham's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wrexham's last 3.
- Wrexham kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Millwall
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Wrexham
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
The Den, London · Referee: Oliver Langford, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Millwall vs Wrexham?
- Our model makes Millwall the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Wrexham?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Millwall vs Wrexham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Millwall vs Wrexham?
- Millwall's reported absences and doubts include K. Lisbie, L. Jensen, T. Crama, R. Esse and 12 others. Wrexham's include O. Rathbone, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, B. Sheaf and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.