Premiership · Regular Season - 5
MotherwellvDundee Utd
Motherwell
Dundee Utd·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Motherwell and Dundee Utd finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mot / Dun | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Motherwell down the side and Dundee Utd across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 33%.
What we think
- Motherwell54% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Motherwell the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives Motherwell a 47% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 26% draw · 26% away
Now: 47% home · 26% draw · 27% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Motherwell
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Motherwell
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Dundee Utd
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MotherwellDDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v ST Mirren 3–3(xG 2.2–2.3)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Falkirk 0–0
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Hibernian 2–1
Dundee UtdWLLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Kilmarnock 4–0(xG 3.5–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Dundee 0–2
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Heart Of Midlothian 0–4
- Fri 31 Jul · H v Rangers 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Motherwell have won 1 of their last 3.
- Motherwell have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of Motherwell's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Motherwell's last 3.
- Motherwell kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
- Dundee Utd have won 1 of their last 4.
- Dundee Utd have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 2 of Dundee Utd's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Dundee Utd's last 4.
- Dundee Utd kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Motherwell
Rest: 3 days · 1 match in 14d
Dundee Utd
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Fir Park, Motherwell · Referee: C. Scott
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
- Our model makes Motherwell the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
- Motherwell line up in a 4-2-3-1, Dundee Utd in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.