Premiership · Regular Season - 5
DundeevST Johnstone
Dundee
ST Johnstone·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Dundee and ST Johnstone finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dun / ST | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Dundee down the side and ST Johnstone across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 75% against 76%.
What we think
- Dundee50% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Dundee the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes ST Johnstone the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Wed 2 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (52%).
For comparison, the market gives ST Johnstone a 38% chance. Our model makes it 24%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 27% draw · 36% away
Now: 35% home · 27% draw · 38% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards ST Johnstone
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Dundee
Confirmed · formation n/a
No reported absences.
ST Johnstone
Confirmed · formation n/a
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DundeeLWWL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Hibernian 1–2(xG 0.8–2.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Dundee Utd 2–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Aberdeen 2–0
- Mon 3 Aug · A v Celtic 0–1
ST JohnstoneLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Heart Of Midlothian 1–2(xG 1.2–1.7)
- Sat 8 Aug · A v ST Mirren 0–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Kilmarnock 4–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Dundee have won 2 of their last 4.
- Dundee have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Dundee's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Dundee's last 4.
- Dundee kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- ST Johnstone have won 1 of their last 3.
- ST Johnstone have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of ST Johnstone's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of ST Johnstone's last 3.
- ST Johnstone kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Dundee
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
ST Johnstone
Rest: 4 days · 1 match in 14d
Dens Park, Dundee · Referee: R. Hardie
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
- Our model makes Dundee the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market instead favours ST Johnstone at 38%.
- How many goals are expected in Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.