Serie A · Regular Season - 26
RemovFlamengo
Remo
Flamengo·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Flamengo53% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Flamengo the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 43% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Flamengo a 66% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 13% home · 21% draw · 66% away
Now: 13% home · 21% draw · 66% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Remo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- Marcelinho — out (Yellow Cards)
- Edson Fernando — out (Red Card)
- Ze Ivaldo — out (Loan agreement)
- Mayk — out (Inactive)
- Jaja — out (Inactive)
- Eduardo Melo — out (Inactive)
- Ze Ricardo — out (Red Card)
- Patrick de Paula — out (Groin Injury)
- Thalisson — out (Knee Injury)
- Kayky Almeida — out (Knee Injury)
- Freitas — out (Inactive)
- Joao Lucas — out (Knee Injury)
- Savio — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Diego Hernandez — out (Inactive)
Flamengo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- E. Pulgar — out (Yellow Cards)
- Lucas Paqueta — out (Yellow Cards)
- G. Plata — out (Inactive)
- Evertton Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
- Bruno Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- N. de la Cruz — out (Muscle Injury)
- Leo Pereira — out (Rest)
- Everton — out (Illness)
- Alex Sandro — out (Calf Injury)
- Luiz Araujo — out (Knee Injury)
- G. de Arrascaeta — out (International duty)
- G. Varela — out (Yellow Cards)
- Jorginho — out (Toe Injury)
- Danilo — out (International duty)
- S. Niguez — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RemoLLDDL
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Coritiba 2–3(xG 2.9–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Fluminense 1–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Internacional 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Atletico-MG 2–2
- Wed 29 Jul · A v Mirassol 1–2
FlamengoWWLWW
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Mirassol 2–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Botafogo 3–0(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Cruzeiro 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Mirassol 5–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Vitoria 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Remo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Remo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Remo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Remo's last 5.
- Remo kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5.
- Flamengo have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Flamengo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Flamengo's last 5.
- Flamengo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Remo W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 0 of 1
- Flamengo 3–0 Remo
7Context
Remo
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Flamengo
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mangueirão, Belem · Referee: L. Casagrande
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Remo vs Flamengo?
- Our model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- Will both teams score in Remo vs Flamengo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Remo vs Flamengo?
- Remo's reported absences and doubts include Marcelinho, Edson Fernando, Ze Ivaldo, Mayk and 10 others. Flamengo's include E. Pulgar, Lucas Paqueta, G. Plata, Evertton Araujo and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Remo vs Flamengo?
- Remo line up in a 4-2-3-1, Flamengo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.