Serie A · Regular Season - 26
CruzeirovAtletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Cruzeiro49% · Match result
- Over 1.571% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Cruzeiro the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Cruzeiro a 54% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 27% draw · 22% away
Now: 54% home · 25% draw · 21% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Cruzeiro
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cruzeiro
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Villarreal — out (Inactive)
- L. Romero — out (Calf Injury)
- Kenji — out (Inactive)
- Jonathan Jesus — out (Injury)
- Bruno Rodrigues — out (Inactive)
- Matheus Henrique — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sinisterra — out (Muscle Injury)
- Fagner — out (Yellow Cards)
- Gerson — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Arroyo — out (Inactive)
- William Furtado — out (Personal Reasons)
- Kaua Prates — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Kaio Jorge — out (Foot Injury)
- Cassio — out (Knee Injury)
Atletico Paranaense
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- G. Benavidez — out (Inactive)
- Leo Derik — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Teran — out (Injury)
- J. Portilla — out (Injury)
- Luiz Gustavo — out (Inactive)
- L. Esquivel — out (Ankle Injury)
- B. Zapelli — out (Ankle Injury)
- Mycael — out (Leg Injury)
- Felipinho — out (Muscle Injury)
- Julimar — out (Ankle Injury)
- Jadson — out (Injury)
- Bruninho — out (Inactive)
- Renan Peixoto — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CruzeiroLWWWW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Vasco DA Gama 1–3(xG 0.6–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Flamengo 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Corinthians 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Mirassol 3–1
- Fri 31 Jul · A v Coritiba 1–0
Atletico ParanaenseDWDWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fluminense 3–3(xG 1.9–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Botafogo 3–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v RB Bragantino 1–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Santos 2–0
- Thu 30 Jul · A v Corinthians 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 5.
- Cruzeiro have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Cruzeiro's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cruzeiro's last 5.
- Cruzeiro kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atletico Paranaense's last 5.
- Atletico Paranaense kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Cruzeiro W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Cruzeiro
7Context
Cruzeiro
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Atletico Paranaense
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte · Referee: D. C. Muniz dos Santos
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Our model makes Cruzeiro the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Cruzeiro's reported absences and doubts include N. Villarreal, L. Romero, Kenji, Jonathan Jesus and 10 others. Atletico Paranaense's include G. Benavidez, Leo Derik, C. Teran, J. Portilla and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Cruzeiro line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atletico Paranaense in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.