Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Seattle SoundersvNew York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders
New York Red Bulls·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Seattle Sounders58% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Seattle Sounders the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 53%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Seattle Sounders a 53% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 52% home · 23% draw · 25% away
Now: 53% home · 23% draw · 25% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Seattle Sounders
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Seattle Sounders
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Rothrock — out (Tendon Injury)
- P. de La Vega — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Ragen — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Roldan — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Arriola — out (Calf Injury)
- Y. Gomez Andrade — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Dotson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Morris — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Roldan — out (Hip Injury)
- Kim Kee-Hee — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Hawkins — out (Muscle Injury)
New York Red Bulls
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Marshall-Rutty — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Marcucci — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- J. Che — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- M. Dos Santos — out (International duty)
- R. Mosquera — out (Inactive)
- R. Donkor — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Harper — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Nealis — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Sofo — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- O. Valencia — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Mehmeti — out (Red Card)
- D. Ruiz — out (International duty)
- M. Jimenez — out (International duty)
- J. Hall — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Seattle SoundersDDLLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 2–2(xG 0.9–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–1
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Austin 1–2
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Vancouver Whitecaps 0–2
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 1–2
New York Red BullsLDLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–3(xG 2.0–2.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Nashville SC 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 1–2
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Orlando City SC 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Seattle Sounders have won 0 of their last 5.
- Seattle Sounders have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Seattle Sounders's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Seattle Sounders's last 5.
- Seattle Sounders kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have won 1 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of New York Red Bulls's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New York Red Bulls's last 5.
- New York Red Bulls kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Seattle Sounders
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
New York Red Bulls
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Lumen Field, Seattle · Referee: R. Fierro
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model makes Seattle Sounders the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
- Seattle Sounders's reported absences and doubts include P. Rothrock, P. de La Vega, J. Ragen, C. Roldan and 7 others. New York Red Bulls's include J. Marshall-Rutty, A. Marcucci, J. Che, M. Dos Santos and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?
- Seattle Sounders line up in a 4-2-3-1, New York Red Bulls in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.