Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Vancouver WhitecapsvSt. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Vancouver Whitecaps67% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 56% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 67% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 67% home · 19% draw · 15% away
Now: 67% home · 19% draw · 14% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from St. Louis City
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Vancouver Whitecaps
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Sabaly — out (Illness)
- R. Priso — out (International duty)
- E. Ocampo — out (International duty)
- M. Gherasimencov — out (International duty)
- A. Cubas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Badwal — out (Injury)
- T. Muller — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Berhalter — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Veselinovic — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Poku — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — out (Foot Injury)
- E. Sabbi — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Adekugbe — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Schonlau — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Halbouni — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Elloumi — out (International duty)
- Y. Diaby — out (International duty)
St. Louis City
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. McSorley — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- P. Ault — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- C. Wallem — out (Yellow Cards)
- T. Ostrak — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Pearce — out (Injury)
- C. Durkin — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Jeong — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Orozco — out (Hamstring Injury)
- T. Totland — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Downs — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Vancouver WhitecapsWWLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 3–0(xG 3.0–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Dallas 5–0
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 0–1
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–0
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 1–1
St. Louis CityDWDWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Dallas 3–3(xG 1.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 2–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Sporting Kansas City 1–1
- Sun 16 Aug · A v San Jose Earthquakes 3–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- St. Louis City have won 2 of their last 5.
- St. Louis City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of St. Louis City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of St. Louis City's last 5.
- St. Louis City kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Vancouver Whitecaps
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
St. Louis City
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
BC Place · Referee: M. Venne
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City?
- Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City?
- Vancouver Whitecaps's reported absences and doubts include C. Sabaly, R. Priso, E. Ocampo, M. Gherasimencov and 13 others. St. Louis City's include B. McSorley, P. Ault, C. Wallem, T. Ostrak and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City?
- Vancouver Whitecaps line up in a 4-2-3-1, St. Louis City in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.