Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Los Angeles GalaxyvNew England Revolution
Los Angeles Galaxy
New England Revolution·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Los Angeles Galaxy49% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles Galaxy the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 38% chance. Our model makes it 49%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 24% draw · 38% away
Now: 38% home · 25% draw · 38% away
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Los Angeles Galaxy
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- S. Roberto — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Paintsil — out (Thigh Injury)
- E. Cerrillo — out (Yellow Cards)
- J. Glesnes — out (Yellow Cards)
- L. Sanabria — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Garces — out (Red Card)
- E. Wynder — out (Injury)
- E. Thommy — out (Injury)
- Matheus Nascimento — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Rindov — out (Leg Injury)
- H. Miller — out (International duty)
- H. Lozano — out (International duty)
New England Revolution
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- B. Raines — out (International duty)
- P. Miller — out (International duty)
- I. Feingold — out (International duty)
- L. Langoni — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Harrison — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Farrell — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- M. Polster — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Campana — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Turgeman — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Los Angeles GalaxyLDWLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v San Diego 1–3(xG 0.8–2.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v CF Montreal 2–2
- Thu 20 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v FC Dallas 0–0
New England RevolutionWDWLL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 3–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v DC United 3–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Houston Dynamo 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 1 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Los Angeles Galaxy's last 5.
- Los Angeles Galaxy kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have won 2 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of New England Revolution's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of New England Revolution's last 5.
- New England Revolution kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Los Angeles Galaxy
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
New England Revolution
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Dignity Health Sports Park · Referee: D. Fischer
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
- Our model makes Los Angeles Galaxy the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
- Los Angeles Galaxy's reported absences and doubts include S. Roberto, J. Paintsil, E. Cerrillo, J. Glesnes and 8 others. New England Revolution's include B. Raines, P. Miller, I. Feingold, L. Langoni and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution?
- Los Angeles Galaxy line up in a 4-3-3, New England Revolution in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.