Liga MX · Apertura - 7
Tigres UANLvNecaxa
Tigres UANL
Necaxa·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Tigres UANL62% · Match result
- Over 1.574% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Tigres UANL the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Tigres UANL a 54% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 60% home · 23% draw · 17% away
Now: 54% home · 25% draw · 21% away
Moved −6pp — the market moved away from Tigres UANL
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Tigres UANL
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Necaxa
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Tigres UANLDWLLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Santos Laguna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Atlante FC 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Atlas 1–2
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–3
- Sun 26 Jul · H v Atletico San Luis 2–2
NecaxaLDLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Cruz Azul 1–3(xG 0.4–1.9)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1
- Tue 18 Aug · H v Leon 1–2
- Mon 3 Aug · A v Toluca 1–3
- Sun 26 Jul · H v Monterrey 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Tigres UANL have won 1 of their last 5.
- Tigres UANL have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Tigres UANL's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Tigres UANL's last 5.
- Tigres UANL kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Necaxa have won 1 of their last 5.
- Necaxa have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Necaxa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Necaxa's last 5.
- Necaxa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Tigres UANL
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Necaxa
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza · Referee: K. Hernandez Andrade
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?
- Our model makes Tigres UANL the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?
- Tigres UANL line up in a 4-2-3-1, Necaxa in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.