Liga MX · Apertura - 7
AtlasvAtlante FC
Atlas
Atlante FC·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Atlante FC41% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atlante FC the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 19% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Atlas the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 24%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Atlas a 49% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 28% draw · 23% away
Now: 49% home · 27% draw · 24% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Atlante FC
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atlas
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Atlante FC
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AtlasLWWLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Club Queretaro 1–3(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Monterrey 0–2
- Sun 26 Jul · A v Santos Laguna 1–0
Atlante FCDLDWD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Leon 1–1(xG 1.1–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Tigres UANL 0–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Toluca 0–0
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Cruz Azul 3–2
- Sat 25 Jul · H v Club America 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atlas have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atlas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atlas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atlas's last 5.
- Atlas kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Atlante FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Atlante FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atlante FC's last 5.
- Atlante FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Atlas
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atlante FC
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara · Referee: I. Lopez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Atlas vs Atlante FC?
- Our model makes Atlante FC the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Atlas at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Atlas vs Atlante FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atlas vs Atlante FC?
- Atlas line up in a 4-1-4-1, Atlante FC in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.