Liga MX · Apertura - 7
Cruz AzulvSantos Laguna
Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna·
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). Cruz Azul and Santos Laguna finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cru / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Cruz Azul down the side and Santos Laguna across. These 96.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Cruz Azul74% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Cruz Azul the most likely of the three results, at 74% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 74% this result does not happen 26% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
Nothing to show here yet — no forecast of ours and no price from the market.
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Cruz Azul
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Santos Laguna
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Cruz AzulWLLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Necaxa 3–1(xG 1.9–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Atlas 0–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 1–2
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Atlante FC 2–3
- Wed 22 Jul · H v Puebla 2–1
Santos LagunaDLLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 0–0(xG 0.9–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Puebla 2–3
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 0–1
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
- Sun 26 Jul · H v Atlas 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.
- Cruz Azul have won 2 of their last 5.
- Cruz Azul have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Cruz Azul's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Cruz Azul's last 5.
- Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Santos Laguna have won 0 of their last 5.
- Santos Laguna have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Santos Laguna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Santos Laguna's last 5.
- Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Cruz Azul
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Santos Laguna
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: M. Quintero
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?
- Our model makes Cruz Azul the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time.
- Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.