Who will win Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

Our model makes Cruz Azul the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.

Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

Cruz Azul line up in a 5-3-2, Santos Laguna in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Liga MX · Apertura - 7

Cruz AzulvSantos Laguna

Sun 6 Sep · 23:00 UTC

1 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Cruz Azul74% · Match result
Over 1.580% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Cruz Azul the most likely of the three results, at 74% (we would not be surprised by anything from 57% to 87%). Most likely is not likely: at 74% this result does not happen 26% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 71%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Cruz Azul a 71% chance. Our model makes it 74%.

Cruz AzulModel 74% [57%–87%]Market 71%

2Market

Open: 70% home · 18% draw · 12% away

Now: 71% home · 17% draw · 12% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Cruz Azul

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home74%vs71%+3pp

Draw17%vs17%0pp

Away9%vs12%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs67%

Under 2.5—vs33%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs88%−8pp

Under 1.520%vs12%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs46%

Under 3.5—vs54%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs58%−6pp

No48%vs42%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Cruz Azul

Confirmed · 5-3-2

No reported absences.

Santos Laguna

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Cruz AzulWLLLW

Sat 29 Aug · A v Necaxa 3–1(xG 1.9–0.4)
Sun 23 Aug · H v Atlas 0–2
Mon 17 Aug · A v Club Tijuana 1–2
Sun 2 Aug · H v Atlante FC 2–3
Wed 22 Jul · H v Puebla 2–1

Santos LagunaDLLLL

Sun 30 Aug · H v Tigres UANL 0–0(xG 0.9–1.3)
Sun 23 Aug · A v Puebla 2–3
Mon 17 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 0–1
Sun 2 Aug · A v Club America 0–3
Sun 26 Jul · H v Atlas 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul have won 2 of their last 5.
Cruz Azul have scored in 4 of their last 5.
4 of Cruz Azul's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of Cruz Azul's last 5.
Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna have won 0 of their last 5.
Santos Laguna have scored in 1 of their last 5.
2 of Santos Laguna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Santos Laguna's last 5.
Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Cruz Azul

Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d

Santos Laguna

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City · Referee: Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez, Mexico

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?: Our model makes Cruz Azul the most likely result at 74%. Most likely is not likely — at 74% it does not happen 26% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 71%.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?: Cruz Azul line up in a 5-3-2, Santos Laguna in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.