La Liga · Regular Season - 4
ValenciavBarcelona
Valencia
Barcelona·
0 – 5 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Barcelona56% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Barcelona a 77% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 9% home · 15% draw · 76% away
Now: 8% home · 14% draw · 77% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Barcelona
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Valencia
Lineup not yet confirmed
- L. Rioja — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Foulquier — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Tarrega — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Diakhaby — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vazquez — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- U. Sadiq — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Almeida — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Rodriguez — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Maffeo — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Mari — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Lopez — out (Knee Injury)
- J. De Haas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Copete — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Canos — out (Knee Injury)
Barcelona
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
- F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
- Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ValenciaLLDWW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–3(xG 1.3–1.4)
- Tue 25 Aug · H v Real Betis 0–1(xG 1.1–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Barcelona 3–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Real Sociedad 4–3
BarcelonaWWWLW
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 5–2(xG 2.8–1.1)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Athletic Club 2–0(xG 3.9–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Elche 5–0(xG 4.4–0.7)
- Sat 23 May · A v Valencia 1–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Real Betis 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Valencia have won 2 of their last 5.
- Valencia have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Valencia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Valencia's last 5.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Barcelona's last 5.
- Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 1, Barcelona 8, with 1 drawn.
- Valencia W–D–L
- 1–1–8
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- Valencia 3–1 Barcelona
- Barcelona 6–0 Valencia
- Barcelona 7–1 Valencia
- Valencia 1–2 Barcelona
- Barcelona 4–2 Valencia
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona
- Barcelona 1–0 Valencia
- Valencia 0–1 Barcelona
- Valencia 1–4 Barcelona
- Barcelona 3–1 Valencia
7Context
Valencia
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Barcelona
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Valencia vs Barcelona?
- Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
- Will both teams score in Valencia vs Barcelona?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Valencia vs Barcelona?
- Valencia's reported absences and doubts include L. Rioja, D. Foulquier, C. Tarrega, M. Diakhaby and 10 others. Barcelona's include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Barcelona?
- In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 1, Barcelona 8, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.