La Liga · Regular Season - 3
BarcelonavRayo Vallecano
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano·
5 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
3–02.5–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 3–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bar / Ray | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Barcelona down the side and Rayo Vallecano across. These 96.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 4.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Barcelona77% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 77% (we would not be surprised by anything from 71% to 83%). Most likely is not likely: at 77% this result does not happen 23% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 89%.
Verify this forecast → Published Mon 31 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Barcelona a 89% chance. Our model makes it 77%.
2Market
Open: 83% home · 11% draw · 5% away
Now: 89% home · 8% draw · 3% away
Moved +6pp — the market moved towards Barcelona
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Barcelona
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
- F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
- Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. de Frutos — out (Red Card)
- F. Perez — out (Red Card)
- R. Nteka — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Balliu — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kumbulla — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vertrouwd — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Palazon — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Batalla — out (Broken calfbone)
- D. Mendez — out (Knee Injury)
- Luiz Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BarcelonaWWLWL
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Athletic Club 2–0(xG 3.9–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Elche 5–0(xG 4.4–0.7)
- Sat 23 May · A v Valencia 1–3
- Sun 17 May · H v Real Betis 3–1
- Wed 13 May · A v Alaves 0–1
Rayo VallecanoDLWWD
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Alaves 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Sevilla 1–2
- Sat 23 May · A v Alaves 2–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Villarreal 2–0
- Thu 14 May · A v Valencia 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Barcelona have won 3 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Barcelona's last 5.
- Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Barcelona have won 4, Rayo Vallecano 3, with 3 drawn.
- Barcelona W–D–L
- 4–3–3
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Barcelona
- Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Barcelona
- Barcelona 3–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Barcelona
- Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Barcelona
- Barcelona 0–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Barcelona 0–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Barcelona
7Context
Barcelona
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Rayo Vallecano
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
Camp Nou, Barcelona · Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 77%. Most likely is not likely — at 77% it does not happen 23% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 89%.
- What is the team news for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Barcelona's reported absences and doubts include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Rayo Vallecano's include J. de Frutos, F. Perez, R. Nteka, I. Balliu and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Barcelona line up in a 4-2-3-1, Rayo Vallecano in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano?
- In their last 10 meetings, Barcelona have won 4, Rayo Vallecano 3, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.