Serie A · Regular Season - 2
LeccevAS Roma
Lecce
AS Roma·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–20.7–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (17%), then 0-2 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Lecce and AS Roma finish on some other score 58% of the time. We show 0–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lec / AS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Lecce down the side and AS Roma across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- AS Roma56% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes AS Roma the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Mon 31 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives AS Roma a 67% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 12% home · 22% draw · 66% away
Now: 12% home · 21% draw · 67% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards AS Roma
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lecce
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Berisha — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- Tiago Gabriel — out (Injury)
- W. Geubbels — out (Ankle Injury)
- O. Gandelman — out (Inactive)
- L. Banda — out (Inactive)
- A. Gallo — doubtful (Injury)
AS Roma
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Ndicka — out (Illness)
- D. Rensch — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Bah — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LecceWWWLW
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.7–2.0)
- Sun 24 May · H v Genoa 1–0
- Sun 17 May · A v Sassuolo 3–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Juventus 0–1
- Fri 1 May · A v Pisa 2–1
AS RomaWWWWW
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Fiorentina 4–0(xG 3.1–0.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Hellas Verona 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lazio 2–0
- Sun 10 May · A v Parma 3–2
- Mon 4 May · H v Fiorentina 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lecce have won 4 of their last 5.
- Lecce have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lecce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Lecce's last 5.
- Lecce kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- AS Roma have won 5 of their last 5.
- AS Roma have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of AS Roma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of AS Roma's last 5.
- AS Roma kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma 6, with 2 drawn.
- Lecce W–D–L
- 0–2–6
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- AS Roma 1–0 Lecce
- Lecce 0–2 AS Roma
- Lecce 0–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 4–1 Lecce
- Lecce 0–0 AS Roma
- AS Roma 2–1 Lecce
- Lecce 1–1 AS Roma
- AS Roma 2–1 Lecce
7Context
Lecce
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
AS Roma
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Via del Mare, Lecce · Referee: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Lecce vs AS Roma?
- Our model makes AS Roma the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- What is the team news for Lecce vs AS Roma?
- Lecce's reported absences and doubts include M. Berisha, Tiago Gabriel, W. Geubbels, O. Gandelman and 2 others. AS Roma's include E. Ndicka, D. Rensch, L. Balerdi, L. Pellegrini and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lecce vs AS Roma?
- Lecce line up in a 3-5-2, AS Roma in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
- In their last 8 meetings, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma 6, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.