Serie A · Regular Season - 2
AtalantavBologna
Atalanta
Bologna·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Atalanta and Bologna finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ata / Bol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atalanta down the side and Bologna across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Atalanta52% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atalanta the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.
Verify this forecast → Published Mon 31 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Atalanta a 50% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 51% home · 26% draw · 24% away
Now: 50% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atalanta
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- O. Kossounou — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Gaetano — out (Red Card)
- T. Kristensen — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- H. Ahanor — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sulemana — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- K. Sulemana — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Hien — out (Muscle Injury)
Bologna
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Zortea — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Dovbyk — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Orsolini — out (Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- O. El Azzouzi — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Casale — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AtalantaWDLWD
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sassuolo 2–1(xG 0.9–2.7)
- Fri 22 May · A v Fiorentina 1–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Bologna 0–1
- Sun 10 May · A v AC Milan 3–2
- Sat 2 May · H v Genoa 0–0
BolognaLDWWD
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Lazio 0–1(xG 1.8–0.6)
- Sat 23 May · H v Inter 3–3
- Sun 17 May · A v Atalanta 1–0
- Mon 11 May · A v Napoli 3–2
- Sun 3 May · H v Cagliari 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Atalanta's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Atalanta's last 5.
- Atalanta kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Bologna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Bologna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Bologna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Bologna's last 5.
- Bologna kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Atalanta have won 4, Bologna 4, with 2 drawn.
- Atalanta W–D–L
- 4–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Atalanta 0–1 Bologna
- Bologna 0–2 Atalanta
- Atalanta 2–0 Bologna
- Bologna 1–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 1–2 Bologna
- Bologna 1–0 Atalanta
- Atalanta 0–2 Bologna
- Bologna 1–2 Atalanta
- Bologna 0–1 Atalanta
- Atalanta 0–0 Bologna
7Context
Atalanta
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Bologna
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
New Balance Arena, Bergamo · Referee: Daniele Doveri, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Atalanta vs Bologna?
- Our model makes Atalanta the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
- What is the team news for Atalanta vs Bologna?
- Atalanta's reported absences and doubts include O. Kossounou, G. Gaetano, T. Kristensen, J. Rowe and 4 others. Bologna's include N. Zortea, A. Dovbyk, R. Orsolini, J. Rowe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atalanta vs Bologna?
- Atalanta line up in a 4-3-3, Bologna in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
- In their last 10 meetings, Atalanta have won 4, Bologna 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.