Premier League · Regular Season - 2
Aston VillavArsenal
Aston Villa
Arsenal·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.0–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Aston Villa and Arsenal finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ast / Ars | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Aston Villa down the side and Arsenal across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Arsenal52% · Match result
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 3 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Arsenal the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Mon 31 Aug, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Arsenal a 64% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 14% home · 22% draw · 64% away
Now: 15% home · 22% draw · 64% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Aston Villa
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Aston Villa
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Torres — out (Injury)
- I. Maatsen — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Bizot — out (Back Injury)
- Alysson — out (Injury)
- M. Cash — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Goretzka — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Madjo — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Bailey — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Harwood-Bellis — doubtful (Injury)
- I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
- T. Abraham — out (Injury)
- O. Watkins — out (Inactive)
- E. Martinez — out (Finger Injury)
- Joao Gomes — out (Red Card)
- A. Onana — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Manzambi — out (Knee Injury)
Arsenal
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. White — out (Groin Injury)
- C. Mosquera — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Timber — out (Ankle Injury)
- Bruno Guimaraes — out (Thigh Injury)
- Gabriel Jesus — out (Transfer negotiations)
- G. Martinelli — out (Transfer negotiations)
- W. Saliba — out (Back Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Aston VillaLWWDL
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Brighton 0–4(xG 0.3–3.8)
- Sun 24 May · A v Manchester City 2–1
- Fri 15 May · H v Liverpool 4–2
- Sun 10 May · A v Burnley 2–2
- Sun 3 May · H v Tottenham 1–2
ArsenalWWWWW
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Coventry 3–0
- Sun 24 May · A v Crystal Palace 2–1
- Mon 18 May · H v Burnley 1–0
- Sun 10 May · A v West Ham 1–0
- Sat 2 May · H v Fulham 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5.
- Aston Villa have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Aston Villa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 5.
- Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 5.
- Arsenal have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Arsenal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Arsenal's last 5.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Aston Villa have won 3, Arsenal 6, with 1 drawn.
- Aston Villa W–D–L
- 3–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal
- Arsenal 0–2 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 1–0 Arsenal
- Aston Villa 2–4 Arsenal
- Arsenal 2–1 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal
- Arsenal 3–1 Aston Villa
7Context
Aston Villa
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Arsenal
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Villa Park, Birmingham · Referee: Jarred Gillett, Australia
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
- Our model makes Arsenal the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- What is the team news for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
- Aston Villa's reported absences and doubts include P. Torres, I. Maatsen, M. Bizot, Alysson and 12 others. Arsenal's include B. White, C. Mosquera, J. Timber, Bruno Guimaraes and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
- Aston Villa line up in a 4-2-3-1, Arsenal in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Arsenal?
- In their last 10 meetings, Aston Villa have won 3, Arsenal 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.