La Liga · Regular Season - 4
EspanyolvSevilla
Espanyol
Sevilla·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Espanyol45% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 1.5: Over 1.5
- We make this 76% against a market price of 70% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.7 goals, and 2.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.0 goals.
- 14 players reported unavailable — 7 for Espanyol, 7 for Sevilla.
Our forecast makes Espanyol the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Espanyol a 42% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 30% draw · 28% away
Now: 42% home · 29% draw · 28% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Espanyol
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
- Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
- B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)
Sevilla
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- R. Vargas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Sangante — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Stassin — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Salas — out (Red Card)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Marcao — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Gonzalez — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EspanyolLLWDW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Real Sociedad 1–2(xG 0.8–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Madrid 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Levante 3–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Real Sociedad 1–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Osasuna 2–1
SevillaLWWLL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Atletico Madrid 1–3(xG 1.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Athletic Club 3–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 2–1
- Sat 23 May · A v Celta Vigo 0–1
- Sun 17 May · H v Real Madrid 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Espanyol have won 2 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Espanyol's last 5.
- Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sevilla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sevilla's last 5.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Espanyol have won 1, Sevilla 5, with 2 drawn.
- Espanyol W–D–L
- 1–2–5
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 6 of 8
- Sevilla 2–1 Espanyol
- Espanyol 2–1 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–1 Espanyol
- Espanyol 0–2 Sevilla
- Sevilla 3–2 Espanyol
- Espanyol 2–3 Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–1 Sevilla
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol
7Context
Espanyol
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Sevilla
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
RCDE Stadium, Cornella · Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Espanyol vs Sevilla?
- Our model makes Espanyol the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Sevilla?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Espanyol vs Sevilla?
- Espanyol's reported absences and doubts include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Sevilla's include R. Vargas, A. Sangante, L. Stassin, K. Salas and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Espanyol vs Sevilla?
- Espanyol line up in a 4-4-2, Sevilla in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Sevilla?
- In their last 8 meetings, Espanyol have won 1, Sevilla 5, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.