La Liga · Regular Season - 4

MalagavLevante

·

0 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Malaga49% · Match result
  • Over 1.579% · Goals
  • Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Malaga the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Malaga a 40% chance. Our model makes it 49%.

MalagaModel 49% [26%–72%]Market 40%
Malaga:, our forecast 49%, between 26% and 72%, market 40%

2Market

Open: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away

Now: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home49%vs40%+9pp
Draw25%vs29%−4pp
Away26%vs31%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs49%
Under 2.5—vs51%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs74%+5pp
Under 1.521%vs26%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs28%
Under 3.5—vs72%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs55%+1pp
No44%vs45%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Malaga

Confirmed · 4-4-2

  • A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
  • H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
  • A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
  • F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
  • A. Pastor — out (Illness)
  • C. Dotor — out (Illness)
  • A. Nino — out (Injury)
  • J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
  • D. Murillo — out (Injury)
  • Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
  • M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)

Levante

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • H. Sotelo — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Etta Eyong — out (Injury)
  • R. Brugue — out (Red Card)
  • A. Primo — out (Shoulder Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

MalagaLDL

  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Real Madrid 0–4(xG 0.7–2.3)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1(xG 1.9–1.1)
  • Wed 19 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 0–2

LevanteWDLLW

  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Real Betis 5–2(xG 3.0–2.0)
  • Mon 24 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
  • Sun 16 Aug · A v Espanyol 0–3
  • Sat 23 May · A v Real Betis 1–2
  • Sun 17 May · H v Mallorca 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Malaga
  • Malaga have won 0 of their last 3.
  • Malaga have scored in 1 of their last 3.
  • 1 of Malaga's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Malaga's last 3.
  • Malaga kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
Levante
  • Levante have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Levante have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Levante's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Levante's last 5.
  • Levante kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Malaga

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Levante

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga · Referee: Luis Bestard Servera, Spain

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Malaga vs Levante?
Our model makes Malaga the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
Will both teams score in Malaga vs Levante?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Malaga vs Levante?
Malaga's reported absences and doubts include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Levante's include H. Sotelo, K. Etta Eyong, R. Brugue, A. Primo. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Malaga vs Levante?
Malaga line up in a 4-4-2, Levante in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.